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Oct 25, 2026

Conflict researcher Paola Vesco and her team developed a model that measures uncertainty in conflict death estimates. Their approach accounts for underreporting and provides realistic ranges. Applying this to Sudan's 2025 war, the model estimates around 80,000 deaths, likely between 73,000 and 90,000, with a small chance of reaching 100,000. These figures exceed official counts, highlighting the importance of probabilistic estimates for informed decision-making.

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